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The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found slightly higher median inflation expectations for the coming year and increased expectations for income, spending and home-price growth. Respondents also lowered their outlook for economic growth and expected higher unemployment; longer-term inflation expectations and expected mortgage rates were unchanged.
The European Central Bank’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey, published on 23 October, showed a mixed change in euro area household outlooks: short-term inflation expectations rose slightly, while expectations for economic growth fell and expected unemployment increased, following the August survey results. Expectations for inflation three and five years ahead and for mortgage rates were unchanged.
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August, as reported in the August Consumer Expectations Survey. Respondents’ median perception of inflation over the previous 12 months increased to 3.6% from 3.5%. Longer-term expectations held at 2.9% three years ahead and 2.5% five years ahead. The ECB said uncertainty around next-year inflation expectations increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Consumers expected nominal income growth of 1.1% over the next 12 months, up from 1.0% in August. Expected nominal spending growth also rose, to 3.7% from 3.6%. By contrast, expected economic growth over the coming year fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. Respondents’ perceived current unemployment rate was 10.6%.
Expected home-price growth over the next year increased to 3.5% from 3.4%. Expected mortgage interest rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%, unchanged from July, according to the July survey results. The ECB also reported that the net share of households saying credit access had tightened over the previous year increased compared with August, as did the net share expecting tighter access ahead.
Households See Weaker Growth Ahead
The survey captures how consumers view prices, spending, jobs and borrowing—factors that can shape household decisions and inform the ECB’s assessment of the economy. The combination of higher short-term inflation expectations and weaker growth expectations offers a mixed signal: households anticipate continued price pressure while becoming less optimistic about economic activity.
The increase in expected unemployment, alongside reports of tighter credit access, is relevant to household confidence and spending plans. However, the survey records consumer expectations, not confirmed future outcomes. The ECB said respondents still expected the future unemployment rate to be only slightly above the perceived current rate, which it described as indicating a broadly stable labour-market outlook.
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How the ECB Survey Is Conducted
The Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The ECB uses the results for policy analysis alongside other economic data.
The September wave’s fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026. The ECB noted that, unless otherwise stated, figures in the release refer to a 2% winsorised mean. It also cautioned that survey findings do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or staff. The underlying microdata and country-level results are available through the ECB’s data and survey pages.
““Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.””
— European Central Bank
Survey Signals Are Not Forecasts
The results show what surveyed consumers expected in September; they do not establish what inflation, growth, unemployment, house prices or borrowing costs will do. The release does not identify a cause for the month-to-month changes, and it does not provide evidence that the shifts in expectations will translate into actual household spending or policy decisions.
The ECB reported that credit tightening perceptions and expectations increased relative to August, but the release does not give the size of those net changes. The figures also reflect responses from participating consumers in 11 euro area countries, rather than every household in the currency area. The ECB says the survey is one input among other data sources, and its results are not positions of ECB decision-makers.
October Results Due in November
The ECB has scheduled publication of the October 2026 survey results for 27 November 2026. That release will provide the next monthly comparison for household views on inflation, income, spending, employment, housing and credit access. Until then, the September findings remain a snapshot of responses collected through 28 September, not a statement about subsequent developments.
Key Questions
When did the ECB publish the September 2026 survey results?
The ECB published the results on 23 October 2026. Fieldwork for the survey ran from 27 August to 28 September.
Did consumers expect inflation to rise?
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. Expectations three and five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively.
What changed in the outlook for jobs and growth?
Expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate in 12 months rose to 11.3% from 11.0%.
When will the next survey results be released?
The ECB scheduled the October 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
