TL;DR
Get smart everyday buys delivered free with Prime
- Fast, free delivery on millions of items
- Prime Video, Amazon Music and more included
- Member-only deals all year
Kiplinger reports that a hypothetical $1,000 investment in QQQ 20 years ago would now be worth about $20,000, compared with roughly $8,000 in SPY, including reinvested dividends. The higher historical return came with larger swings: QQQ fell about 36% from its peak during the 2021–22 rate-hiking period, versus roughly 25% for SPY.
A hypothetical $1,000 invested in the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) 20 years ago would be worth about $20,000 today, compared with roughly $8,000 in SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), according to a Kiplinger report. The comparison includes price changes and reinvested dividends, and shows that QQQ’s stronger historical return came with greater volatility and a steeper decline during the 2021–22 market downturn.
Kiplinger puts QQQ’s annualized total return over the period at 16.1%, versus about 11% for SPY. Those figures describe the reported historical period, not a forecast or a guarantee of future performance. The source does not provide an exact start and end date in the supplied material, so the values are best understood as the report’s approximate 20-year comparison rather than a precisely reproducible calculation.
The funds also differ in what they hold. QQQ tracks the 100 largest nonfinancial stocks listed on Nasdaq, while SPY tracks the S&P 500, a broader basket of large U.S. companies. Kiplinger says technology and communication services account for almost 48% of the S&P 500; QQQ concentrates more heavily in some of the largest technology companies. The report names Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Micron Technology and Amazon as QQQ’s five biggest holdings, together representing 30% of the fund at the time described.
That concentration helped QQQ during a period when major technology and communications businesses grew substantially, according to the report. But the performance gap was not a measure of risk-adjusted returns: Kiplinger says QQQ fell 36% from its peak as interest rates rose in 2021 and 2022, while SPY’s decline was roughly 25%. The source does not give the precise dates or calculation method for those drawdown figures.
Higher Returns Came With Deeper Losses
The comparison illustrates the trade-off between concentrated exposure to growth stocks and broader diversification. QQQ’s heavier weighting in a smaller group of large technology companies amplified gains when those stocks led the market. The same concentration can magnify losses if those companies fall together or investor expectations change.
SPY’s lower reported return does not mean it avoided losses, but its broader holdings and smaller drawdown in the period cited show why a past-return comparison alone is incomplete. Investors weighing the funds would also need to consider their own time horizon, tolerance for sharp declines, portfolio mix, fees and tax circumstances. The figures in Kiplinger’s report do not establish which fund is appropriate for any individual.
Products Worth Considering
Apple MacBook Pro 16-inch (2021) with M1 Max, 64GB RAM, 1TB SSD
Dell XPS 13 9350 Copilot+ Laptop, 13.4-inch 120Hz Display, Intel Core Ultra 7 256V, 16GB RAM, 512GB SSD, Ubuntu Linux 24.04 LTS
Dell UltraSharp 32 U3226QER 4K Thunderbolt Hub Monitor
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
Different Indexes, Different Exposure
QQQ follows the Nasdaq-100, which excludes financial companies and gives substantial weight to its largest eligible businesses. SPY follows the S&P 500, which includes companies across many sectors, including banks and insurers. Kiplinger says financial stocks represent almost 12% of the S&P 500 today, while QQQ’s rules leave that sector out.
The report links the long-run performance difference to two broad developments: the rise of technology and communications companies, and the financial crisis followed by a prolonged period of low interest rates. It also points to the recent growth of AI as part of the technology story, while warning that the prospect of an AI-related bubble could leave QQQ particularly exposed. That is a risk scenario raised in the report, not a confirmed prediction about future market performance.
“If you invested $1,000 in QQQ 20 years ago, it would today be worth $20,000.”
— Kiplinger
Exact Dates And Future Returns Remain Unknown
The supplied source does not state the precise dates used for the 20-year calculation, the date on which the “today” valuation was measured, or the underlying price data. It gives rounded account values and annualized returns, so readers cannot independently reproduce the comparison from the information provided. The source also does not specify whether fees, taxes or other investor costs are reflected in the example.
Past performance does not show whether QQQ will outperform SPY over another 20-year period. The report’s concern about a possible AI bubble is a conditional warning, not evidence that a bubble has formed or that a market decline is imminent. Future returns, drawdowns and sector leadership remain uncertain.
Check The Measurement Before Comparing
Readers seeking a precise replication should consult the original Kiplinger report for its chart and calculation dates, then compare each fund over the same period using total returns with dividends reinvested. Fund holdings and weights can change, so current exposure should be checked against each fund’s latest published materials rather than assumed from the report’s snapshot.
The next meaningful test is how the funds perform through different market conditions, including changes in interest rates and shifts in leadership beyond large technology companies. The historical figures provide a comparison of one past period; they do not settle which fund will perform better next.
Key Questions
How much would $1,000 in QQQ be worth after 20 years?
Kiplinger estimates it would be worth about $20,000, counting price changes and reinvested dividends. The supplied source does not specify the exact dates for the calculation.
How much would $1,000 in SPY be worth over the same period?
The report estimates about $8,000, including reinvested dividends, compared with QQQ’s approximate $20,000.
Why did QQQ outperform SPY in the comparison?
Kiplinger attributes the difference mainly to QQQ’s greater exposure to large technology and communications companies during a period when those businesses performed strongly. The report’s explanation is historical, not a forecast.
Was QQQ more volatile than SPY?
In the drawdown comparison cited by Kiplinger, QQQ fell about 36% from its peak during the 2021–22 rate-hiking period, versus roughly 25% for SPY. The source does not provide exact dates or a calculation method for these figures.
Does the comparison show which ETF is better to buy now?
No. It reports past returns and one historical measure of downside, but does not establish future performance or suitability for an individual investor.
Source: kiplinger.com
